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                    油价下跌、工厂停工、物流中断:上海封城的全球影响

                    油价下跌、工厂停工、物流中断:上海封城的全球影响

                    Will Daniel 2022-04-03
                    只要上海的封城时间不超过几周时间,中国就有希望限制供应链受到的影响。

                    由于上海市在全民核酸检测中发现了“大量”新冠肺炎感染病例,因此上海市政府在3月27日的晚些时候,突然对2600万居民采取分区封城措施。

                    作为中国的金融中心,上海市将以黄浦江为界实行分区封城,持续9天时间,由医护人员分阶段开展核酸筛查。

                    位于上海市东部的居民已经开始居家隔离,包括网约车在内的所有公共交通暂停营运,许多企业和工厂也已经停产或远程办公。而黄浦江对岸的居民正在努力囤积物资,迎接即将到来的封城。在中国坚持动态清零政策的大背景下,这种场景日益普遍。

                    随着奥密克戎变异毒株的病例增加,为了应对新冠疫情,深圳、东莞、长春和沈阳等城市已经执行了短期封城。未来可能会有更多的地区实行封城措施,因为中国政府似乎有意继续严格执行疫情防控。

                    美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师于3月28日在客户报告中写道:“尽管面临大规模奥密克戎疫情带来的挑战,但中国在近期内不可能取消动态清零政策。”

                    上海居民要面对不断增多的病例,还要承受因为封城而导致的收入减少,与此同时,全球经济已经感受到了上海封城所引发的连锁反应,从大宗商品的价格到电动汽车的生产都受到了影响。

                    油价暂时下跌

                    上海封城的消息传出后,引发了人们对中国石油需求下降的担忧,因为中国是全球最大的原油进口国,3月28日,油价下跌8%。

                    3月28日中午之前,国际基准原油布伦特原油的价格下跌超过6%,跌至约112美元/桶,西得克萨斯中质油的跌幅更大,跌破106美元/桶。

                    油价下跌给消费者带来了一丝安慰,因为美国的汽油价格依旧接近历史新高,而且有专家警告称,目前的油价下跌只是暂时性的。

                    在线银行瑞讯银行(Swissquote)的高级分析师伊佩克·奥兹卡戴斯卡亚通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志:“为应对新冠疫情而执行的最新停工措施,预计只是油价长期上涨过程中的小插曲。封城对中期石油需求的影响必定有限,而供应紧张问题将给油价带来巨大的上行压力,尤其是沙特与胡塞武装之间的冲突加剧了石油供应问题。

                    瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的首席投资官马克·黑费勒在3月28日发布的一篇报告中表示,他认为中国正在竭尽所能减少封城对经济的影响,同时全球市场正在努力替换俄罗斯的石油供应,因此油价依旧会高居不下。

                    “自俄乌冲突爆发以来,制裁和供应中断导致局势充满了不确定性。我们认为,俄罗斯是一个重要的能源生产国,其他国家很难找到替代者。”黑费勒写道。“虽然上海封城的消息在市场上产生了负面影响,但如果迅速采取的短期限制措施行之有效,市场依旧可能反弹。目前大宗商品仍然面临价格上行的风险。”

                    工厂停工,“闭环”管理

                    上海封城导致当地的许多工厂暂时停工,但当局已经在竭尽全力避免生产延误,包括在工厂实行“闭环”管理,即允许部分工厂继续运行,不过工人不能离开厂区,并且需要遵守新冠检测规定。

                    3月28日,根据当地政府的要求,特斯拉(Tesla)的上海超级工厂的组装线被迫停工,这种情况可能要持续到3月31日,导致该工厂的日产量临时减少约2000辆。

                    但通用汽车(GM)和大众公司(Volkswagen)等企业的上海工厂将继续运营,而且iPhone的供应商和硕(Pegatron)和中国最大的芯片厂商中芯国际集成电路制造有限公司的工厂也可以继续开工。

                    美国银行表示,如果封城时间较短,并且不会扩散到全国,那么制造业受到的影响就将是“可控的”,但中国服务业和消费领域受到的影响可能较为严重。

                    美国银行的分析师写道:“即使再次零星爆发短期疫情也会对消费领域造成严重冲击,并且在新冠疫情结束之后的几个月内,都会继续影响消费者的信心。”

                    物流中断

                    上海的封城措施已经给全市的供应链和物流运输带来了巨大的压力。

                    虽然上海港口和浦东机场将继续开放,但上海市的卡车司机发现他们很难甚至根本无法获得允许卸货的车辆通行证,导致这座城市的物流运输出现问题。

                    Fibs Logistics的大中华区负责人托马斯·格罗嫩在3月28日对媒体《The Loadstar》表示,未来几天,上海各港口和中国最大的货运机场浦东国际机场的货物往返转运“几乎是不可能的”。

                    总部位于英国的物流公司Woodlands Group在一份声明中称:“卡车运输已经受到了严重影响,导致准备今天装船的大批货物无法运输到港口。”

                    为了避开上海周边的供应链混乱,物流公司纷纷选择附近的宁波港甚至更远的青岛港,但全球消费者或许能够感受到上海供应链混乱所产生的影响。

                    但澳新银行集团(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)的大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆对彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,只要上海的封城时间不超过几周时间,中国就有希望限制供应链受到的影响。(财富中文网)

                    翻译:刘进龙

                    审校:汪皓

                    由于上海市在全民核酸检测中发现了“大量”新冠肺炎感染病例,因此上海市政府在3月27日的晚些时候,突然对2600万居民采取分区封城措施。

                    作为中国的金融中心,上海市将以黄浦江为界实行分区封城,持续9天时间,由医护人员分阶段开展核酸筛查。

                    位于上海市东部的居民已经开始居家隔离,包括网约车在内的所有公共交通暂停营运,许多企业和工厂也已经停产或远程办公。而黄浦江对岸的居民正在努力囤积物资,迎接即将到来的封城。在中国坚持动态清零政策的大背景下,这种场景日益普遍。

                    随着奥密克戎变异毒株的病例增加,为了应对新冠疫情,深圳、东莞、长春和沈阳等城市已经执行了短期封城。未来可能会有更多的地区实行封城措施,因为中国政府似乎有意继续严格执行疫情防控。

                    美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师于3月28日在客户报告中写道:“尽管面临大规模奥密克戎疫情带来的挑战,但中国在近期内不可能取消动态清零政策。”

                    上海居民要面对不断增多的病例,还要承受因为封城而导致的收入减少,与此同时,全球经济已经感受到了上海封城所引发的连锁反应,从大宗商品的价格到电动汽车的生产都受到了影响。

                    油价暂时下跌

                    上海封城的消息传出后,引发了人们对中国石油需求下降的担忧,因为中国是全球最大的原油进口国,3月28日,油价下跌8%。

                    3月28日中午之前,国际基准原油布伦特原油的价格下跌超过6%,跌至约112美元/桶,西得克萨斯中质油的跌幅更大,跌破106美元/桶。

                    油价下跌给消费者带来了一丝安慰,因为美国的汽油价格依旧接近历史新高,而且有专家警告称,目前的油价下跌只是暂时性的。

                    在线银行瑞讯银行(Swissquote)的高级分析师伊佩克·奥兹卡戴斯卡亚通过电子邮件告诉《财富》杂志:“为应对新冠疫情而执行的最新停工措施,预计只是油价长期上涨过程中的小插曲。封城对中期石油需求的影响必定有限,而供应紧张问题将给油价带来巨大的上行压力,尤其是沙特与胡塞武装之间的冲突加剧了石油供应问题。

                    瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)的首席投资官马克·黑费勒在3月28日发布的一篇报告中表示,他认为中国正在竭尽所能减少封城对经济的影响,同时全球市场正在努力替换俄罗斯的石油供应,因此油价依旧会高居不下。

                    “自俄乌冲突爆发以来,制裁和供应中断导致局势充满了不确定性。我们认为,俄罗斯是一个重要的能源生产国,其他国家很难找到替代者。”黑费勒写道。“虽然上海封城的消息在市场上产生了负面影响,但如果迅速采取的短期限制措施行之有效,市场依旧可能反弹。目前大宗商品仍然面临价格上行的风险。”

                    工厂停工,“闭环”管理

                    上海封城导致当地的许多工厂暂时停工,但当局已经在竭尽全力避免生产延误,包括在工厂实行“闭环”管理,即允许部分工厂继续运行,不过工人不能离开厂区,并且需要遵守新冠检测规定。

                    3月28日,根据当地政府的要求,特斯拉(Tesla)的上海超级工厂的组装线被迫停工,这种情况可能要持续到3月31日,导致该工厂的日产量临时减少约2000辆。

                    但通用汽车(GM)和大众公司(Volkswagen)等企业的上海工厂将继续运营,而且iPhone的供应商和硕(Pegatron)和中国最大的芯片厂商中芯国际集成电路制造有限公司的工厂也可以继续开工。

                    美国银行表示,如果封城时间较短,并且不会扩散到全国,那么制造业受到的影响就将是“可控的”,但中国服务业和消费领域受到的影响可能较为严重。

                    美国银行的分析师写道:“即使再次零星爆发短期疫情也会对消费领域造成严重冲击,并且在新冠疫情结束之后的几个月内,都会继续影响消费者的信心。”

                    物流中断

                    上海的封城措施已经给全市的供应链和物流运输带来了巨大的压力。

                    虽然上海港口和浦东机场将继续开放,但上海市的卡车司机发现他们很难甚至根本无法获得允许卸货的车辆通行证,导致这座城市的物流运输出现问题。

                    Fibs Logistics的大中华区负责人托马斯·格罗嫩在3月28日对媒体《The Loadstar》表示,未来几天,上海各港口和中国最大的货运机场浦东国际机场的货物往返转运“几乎是不可能的”。

                    总部位于英国的物流公司Woodlands Group在一份声明中称:“卡车运输已经受到了严重影响,导致准备今天装船的大批货物无法运输到港口。”

                    为了避开上海周边的供应链混乱,物流公司纷纷选择附近的宁波港甚至更远的青岛港,但全球消费者或许能够感受到上海供应链混乱所产生的影响。

                    但澳新银行集团(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)的大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆对彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,只要上海的封城时间不超过几周时间,中国就有希望限制供应链受到的影响。(财富中文网)

                    翻译:刘进龙

                    审校:汪皓

                    Shanghai authorities began a snap lockdown of the city’s 26 million residents late on March 27 after mass testing found "large-scale" COVID-19 infections throughout the financial hub.

                    The two-stage lockdown will split Shanghai along the Huangpu River for nine days to allow for "staggered" testing by healthcare workers.

                    Residents on the eastern side of Shanghai have already been confined to their homes as public transportation, including ride-hailing services, have been halted, while many firms and factories have suspended manufacturing or are working remotely. Across the river, residents are scrambling to secure supplies for the upcoming lockdown in a scene that has become increasingly common under China’s Zero-COVID policy.

                    Cities including Shenzhen, Dongguan, Changchun, and Shenyang have already faced strict, but short-lived lockdowns in China’s ongoing battle against rising Omicron cases. And more lockdowns could be possible moving forward, as authorities seem intent on maintaining strict restrictions in the country.

                    “China is unlikely to give up on its Zero Covid policy in the near term, despite challenges from the large Omicron wave,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a note to clients on March 28.

                    While Shanghai residents grapple with rising COVID-19 cases and lost wages from the city’s lockdown, the global economy is already seeing knock-on effects in everything from commodity prices to electric vehicle production.

                    Oil prices retreat—for now

                    Oil prices retreated as much as 8% on March 28 after news of Shanghai’s lockdown spurred fears about declining demand for oil from China, the world’s biggest crude importer.

                    Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, pared losses to trade down over 6% at around $112 per barrel by mid-day on March 28, while West Texas Intermediate crude sank even further, falling to under $106 per barrel.

                    The fall in the price of oil offers a glimmer of relief for consumers, as U.S. gasoline prices remain near record highs, but experts warn the current downward pricing trend may be short-lived.

                    “The new shutdown measures due to covid are expected to be short-term road bumps on a long up-trending road,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at the online bank Swissquote told Fortune via email. “The impact of the lockdowns on medium-term oil demand will certainly remain limited, whereas the tight supply concerns—which are amplified by the tensions in Saudi Arabia with the Houthi rebels—should keep oil prices under decent positive pressure.”

                    Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer, said in a note to clients on March 28 that he believes oil prices will remain elevated as China does all it can to minimize the economic impact of lockdowns and the global market struggles to replace Russian supply.

                    “Since the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctions and supply disruptions have kept the situation highly fluid. In our view, Russia is a significant energy producer that cannot be easily replaced by others,” Haefele wrote. “While the markets took the announcement negatively, a recovery remains likely if the short and swift restrictions prove effective. Risks to commodity prices remain skewed to the upside for now.”

                    Factory shutdowns, “closed-loop” systems

                    A number of factories in Shanghai have been closed temporarily as a result of the city’s lockdown, but authorities have done their best to prevent production delays by instituting “closed-loop” systems that will let some factories remain open as long as workers are confined to factory campuses and adhere to COVID-19 testing protocols.

                    Still, Tesla’s Shanghai gigafactory was forced to halt assembly lines at authorities’ request on March 28 and will likely remain closed through March 31, leading to a temporary loss of the factory’s daily production of around 2,000 cars.

                    But companies like GM and Volkswagen will continue to operate their Shanghai plants, while the iPhone supplier Pegatron and China’s largest chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International have also been able to keep factories running.

                    Bank of America said the impact on manufacturing may be “manageable” if lockdowns are kept short and don’t spread throughout the country, but damage to China’s services sector and consumer consumption could be more significant.

                    “Even a sporadic and short-live Covid resurgence could bring notable shocks to consumption, and continue to weigh on consumer confidence for months after the Covid wave subsides,” Bank of America analysts wrote.

                    Logistics nightmares

                    Shanghai’s COVID-19 lockdown has already put significant pressure on supply chains and logistics operations around the city.

                    While Shanghai’s ports and the Pudong airport will remain open despite the lockdown, truckers around Shanghai are finding it difficult if not impossible to secure vehicle passes that allow them to unload their cargo in an ongoing logistics nightmare in the city.

                    Transfers to and from the city’s ports as well as to Pudong International Airport—China’s leading cargo airport—will be “nearly impossible” over the coming days, Thomas Gronen, head of the greater China region at Fibs Logistics, told The Loadstar on March 28.

                    “There is a significant disruption to truck movements already…leaving a large part of the cargo ready for loading today unable to be transported to the port,” UK-headquartered logistics provider Woodlands Group said in a statement.

                    Logistics companies are switching to the nearby Ningbo port or even the much further Qingdao port in an attempt to prevent supply chain chaos around Shanghai, but consumers worldwide will likely feel the impact of Shanghai’s supply chain turmoil.

                    China can, however, likely limit the damage to supply chains as long as lockdowns don’t persist past the next few weeks, Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, told Bloomberg.

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